U.S. agriculture, particularly the dairy and poultry sectors, could reap an estimated $450 million from additional exports to Canada and Mexico under the new trade pact. But the gains would be more than negated by those two countries’ retaliatory tariffs on American farm goods, according a new economic analysis published last week.
The analysis from Farm Foundation and Purdue University estimates that U.S. farmers and ranchers could lose nearly $1.8 billion in exports if counter-tariffs continue long-term. Purdue also analyzed the combined impact of retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union, and determined that ag exports could shrink by nearly $8 billion over time.
The biggest drops will be in oilseeds like soybeans, due to Chinese retaliatory duties, followed by meat products.
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