By Poultry Producer Staff | Source: USDA ERS – Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2025 (LDP-M-372)
The June 2025 USDA report outlines a year of mixed momentum in the U.S. poultry sector, with broiler production gaining strength, table egg output facing continued HPAI-related setbacks, and turkey volumes adjusting amid declining placements. Through it all, prices are showing surprising stability.
🐥 Broiler Production Trending Up
Driven by strong chick placement numbers and positive return expectations, 2025 broiler production is revised upward to 47.58 billion pounds, a 1.2% increase over 2024. Key contributing factors include:
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High broiler-type chick hatch numbers
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Rising eggs in incubators
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Improved input margins
Quarterly forecasts show consistent production growth through Q4. The 2026 projection remains firm at 48.1 billion pounds, a 1.1% year-over-year increase.
📈 Broiler Prices Reflect Market Strength
Broiler prices are forecast to average 133.7 cents per pound in 2025, up modestly from 2024. Driven by strong pricing in competing meats (beef and pork), Q2 prices held at 136 cents/lb, while Q3 and Q4 are revised to 134 cents/lb.
The 2026 forecast continues this upward trajectory at 135.5 cents/lb, signaling broad-based pricing stability for producers.
🥚 Egg Production Contracts Under HPAI Pressure
Despite a small rebound in flock size, table egg production is under pressure due to recent HPAI losses—notably the loss of over 5 million laying hens in Arizona during May. As a result:
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2025 egg production is revised down to 7.37 billion dozen, a 4.7% drop from 2024
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Q2–Q4 estimates are all lowered, reflecting slow layer flock recovery and limited pullet replacement numbers
2026 output is expected to bounce back to 7.875 billion dozen, still below 2021 levels.
💰 Egg Prices Stabilize After Volatile Start
New York wholesale egg prices averaged 302 cents/dozen in early June, down sharply from the May peak of 375 cents.
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Q2 forecast holds at 345 cents/dozen
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Q3 revised down to 285 cents/dozen
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Full-year 2025 average is now 405.1 cents/dozen
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2026 forecast: down to 216.3 cents/dozen, reflecting anticipated recovery in flock health and supply
🦃 Turkey Production Tightens but Prices Firm Up
With poult placements declining and one new HPAI case confirmed in South Dakota, 2025 turkey production is revised down to 4.806 billion pounds—a 6.2% drop from last year.
However, prices are strengthening:
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Q2 average: 118 cents/lb
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Q3 and Q4 projections: 125 and 126 cents/lb
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2025 average: revised up to 116 cents/lb
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2026 price forecast: 121.3 cents/lb
2026 production is projected to rebound to 5.08 billion pounds, assuming biological recovery and no major disease resurgence.
🌐 Export Markets Hold for Broilers, Lag for Turkey
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Broiler exports for April reached 551 million pounds, up 4% YoY. Top destinations: Mexico (21.7%), Taiwan, the Philippines, and Cuba.
→ 2025 total broiler exports forecast: 6.588 billion pounds
→ 2026 forecast: 6.670 billion pounds -
Turkey exports were revised down to 405 million pounds in 2025, with Mexico accounting for 81% of shipments. Higher domestic prices are limiting global competitiveness.
🧠 Poultry Producer Insight
As the industry battles lingering biosecurity challenges, the outlook for 2025 is defined by controlled optimism:
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Broilers are gaining market strength
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Egg producers are navigating a delicate path to recovery
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Turkey producers are recalibrating in real time
Through it all, pricing resilience and domestic demand remain positive forces for forward momentum.
📄 Access the full USDA report here:
👉 LDP-M-372: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook – June 2025 (PDF)
