A resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial turkey flocks has pushed wholesale turkey prices sharply higher this year, according to new projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reports that the latest wave of the deadly viral infection began in late 2024 and peaked in early 2025, with an estimated 3.8 million turkeys affected between November 2024 and February 2025. These figures do not include the additional 400,000 turkeys impacted in September 2025, suggesting the total losses are even greater.
As a result, USDA estimates the average wholesale price for frozen turkeys will reach $1.31 per pound this year, up significantly from 94 cents per pound last year — a roughly 40% increase.
Supply Still Stable Despite Higher Prices
Despite the rising wholesale prices, turkey processors say consumers are unlikely to face shortages at grocery stores this holiday season. Supplies of frozen turkeys at retail have remained steady, and major processors believe they can meet holiday demand.
Still, the impact is being felt unevenly across the industry. Smaller meat markets are reporting steep hikes in the prices they pay for wholesale turkeys, while larger retailers—which often have greater purchasing power and long-term supply contracts—are better positioned to absorb the increases.
Many retailers also expect shoppers to continue a familiar pattern of seeking alternative holiday meal options if turkey prices feel too steep, a trend that has become more common in recent years.
Retailers May Use Turkeys as Loss Leaders
Even with higher wholesale costs, some merchants may continue a long-standing practice: selling turkeys below cost to attract shoppers into stores. The strategy relies on holiday customers purchasing additional seasonal staples, such as stuffing, produce, baked goods, and desserts, which help offset losses on the main course.
With inflation still shaping consumer habits, retailers and shoppers alike will be navigating a complicated market — one where supply appears secure, but prices continue to reflect the lingering effects of avian influenza on the poultry industry.
