Brazil’s poultry sector is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, with high supply levels pressuring domestic prices despite recovering international demand. According to CEPEA and Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), the aftermath of temporary trade restrictions continues to impact the market.
🐔 Domestic Prices Under Pressure
Typically, chicken prices rise at the beginning of the month due to stronger demand. However, in early July, poultry prices declined across many regions surveyed by CEPEA. This is primarily due to an oversupply situation that domestic consumption has not yet absorbed.
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Supply-Demand Imbalance: The Brazilian market is facing elevated poultry supply levels, while seasonal factors — including school holidays — have reduced domestic consumption.
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Recent Price Trend: CEPEA notes that this imbalance has reinforced a downward trend in wholesale and regional chicken prices.
🌍 International Trade Impact
Earlier in the year, Brazil’s poultry sector experienced setbacks after a bird flu case in Rio Grande do Sul in May prompted several countries to temporarily restrict imports. Although many key trade partners have since lifted bans and resumed purchases, the domestic impact from the slowdown in shipments lingers.
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Export Market: While international buyers are returning, the volume of product destined for export hasn’t fully offset the domestic surplus.
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Ongoing Rebalancing: Analysts at CEPEA expect it will take time for the market to stabilize as the industry adjusts production to current demand levels.
Industry Outlook
As the world’s largest poultry exporter, Brazil’s performance remains a global indicator for supply dynamics. The sector’s resilience — despite disease-related trade interruptions — showcases the importance of biosecurity, flexible logistics, and export diversification.
Source: CEPEA – https://www.cepea.org.br/
