The poultry industry is experiencing significant growth globally, driven by improving economic conditions and high prices for alternative proteins. As a result, global consumption is expected to increase by 2.5% to 3% this year, marking the second consecutive year of robust market expansion. Many regions are benefiting from favorable market conditions and enhanced profit margins, with the notable exception of China, where weaker economic conditions, reduced consumer confidence, and an oversupply of domestic meat following years of rapid industry expansion are creating challenges.
Avian influenza continues to be a major concern for the poultry industry worldwide. The spread of the disease remains one of the industry’s biggest operational challenges, compounded by tight supplies of parent stock and high hatching egg prices, which limit the ability to expand production. In response to the growing threat of avian flu, more countries are turning to vaccination as a preventive measure. While egg producers have generally been more supportive of vaccination, broiler producers remain more cautious, primarily due to concerns about trade impacts and the mixed results from previous vaccination efforts. For example, France, which has been heavily impacted by avian flu, particularly in regions with high duck and outdoor poultry production, has seen significant improvements in the situation since adopting vaccination. Other countries in Asia and Latin America, where export dependence is low and farmers receive little compensation for avian flu outbreaks, have also started introducing vaccination programs with some success.
Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions are expected to play a key role in shaping the global poultry market. Despite these tensions, global trade is likely to remain strong, supported by relatively tight global protein supplies and growing consumption. While the first quarter of the year is typically slower for the industry, it is expected to surpass previous levels due to strong import demand from key markets such as the EU, the UK, and the Middle East, alongside improved conditions in Japan and Southeast Asia. These factors are likely to keep breast meat prices elevated, although weak demand from China and local oversupply could limit the upside.
Rising geopolitical tensions, such as the implementation of US tariffs on poultry imports and retaliatory measures from other regions, could further disrupt trade and alter global trade flows. Countries like Brazil and Thailand are already gaining market share in places like China and Mexico, and this trend is expected to continue if trade tensions escalate. Global traders will need to remain vigilant and responsive to any shifts in the market caused by these geopolitical developments, particularly as they may affect the flow of agricultural commodities and feed additives.
