Key Insights for the Poultry Industry
The USDA’s January 2025 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook sheds light on key trends shaping the broiler, egg, and turkey sectors. From production declines to export challenges and shifting price projections, the report captures the complexities facing the industry as it moves into 2025. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the highlights.
Download the complete report here
Broiler Production: Navigating HPAI Impacts and Reduced Output
Broiler production in November 2024 reached 3.65 billion pounds, marking a sharp 16.5% decline from October and a 4.4% decrease year-over-year. Key drivers included:
- Reduced Slaughter Days: November had two fewer slaughter days compared to October, significantly impacting overall production volumes.
- Slight Weight Reductions: Average live weights fell from 6.7 pounds in October to 6.6 pounds in November.
HPAI Challenges:
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) significantly disrupted production at the end of 2024, with over 18 million birds affected in December alone. Of these, approximately 2.2 million were part of the broiler production chain.
Revised Forecasts for 2025:
- First-quarter broiler production is projected at 11.7 billion pounds, down from earlier estimates, as the industry grapples with continued losses from HPAI and a cautious start to the year.
Egg Production: Declines Persist Amid Tight Supplies
Egg production saw notable declines in late 2024 due to HPAI and lower layer inventories:
- November 2024 Production: Totaled 639.9 million dozen, a 3.9% drop year-over-year.
- Layer Inventory: The average table egg layer inventory in November was 311.3 million birds, down 3.1% from 2023 and nearly 17 million below the 5-year average.
HPAI had a substantial impact, with 38.4 million table egg layers affected throughout 2024. December alone saw losses of 13.6 million birds, the largest single-month impact of the year.
2025 Projections:
Despite a modest recovery, 2025 egg production is forecast at 7.82 billion dozen, up 1.2% from 2024 but still 3.9% below pre-HPAI levels in 2021.
Pricing Trends:
- December 2024 wholesale egg prices averaged 491.95 cents per dozen, reflecting tight supplies.
- The 2025 annual price is projected at 294 cents per dozen, reflecting steady demand and constrained supply conditions.
Turkey Production and Exports: Continued Pressures in 2025
Turkey production faced significant challenges in 2024, primarily due to HPAI:
- November Production: Reached 394 million pounds, down 12.3% year-over-year.
- Annual Totals: Total 2024 turkey production is estimated at 5.12 billion pounds, a 6.2% drop from 2023.
HPAI Impacts:
December 2024 saw the loss of 1.48 million turkeys, bringing the annual total to 3.63 million birds. This is the second-highest loss since the current HPAI outbreak began in 2022.
2025 Forecasts:
- First-quarter turkey production is revised down to 1.23 billion pounds, with second-quarter estimates at 1.26 billion pounds.
- Annual production is projected at 5.1 billion pounds, slightly below 2024 levels.
Turkey Exports:
- November exports totaled 42.1 million pounds, down 7 million pounds from November 2023.
- Mexico remains the primary market, accounting for 75.3% of U.S. turkey exports in 2024.
Broiler Exports: A Bright Spot Amidst Challenges
Broiler exports continued to show strength, with November 2024 shipments totaling 602.7 million pounds, up 5.7% year-over-year.
- Top Destinations:
- Mexico received 22% of exports, maintaining its position as the largest market.
- Taiwan accounted for 9% of total shipments in November.
2025 Outlook:
While exports are projected at 6.735 billion pounds, this represents a slight decrease due to reduced production forecasts and tighter supplies.
Pricing Trends Across Poultry Products
The USDA report noted rising price projections for broilers, eggs, and turkeys in 2025:
- Broilers: Quarterly price forecasts for 2025 are adjusted upward to 132 and 134 cents per pound for Q1 and Q2, respectively, due to supply constraints and HPAI impacts.
- Eggs: December prices surged to 491.95 cents per dozen, with 2025 prices projected at 294 cents per dozen.
- Turkeys: The average wholesale price for frozen whole turkeys is forecast at 99 cents per pound for 2025, reflecting steady but subdued pricing trends.
Conclusion: A Complex Road Ahead for Poultry Producers
The USDA’s January 2025 outlook underscores the challenges and opportunities facing the poultry sector. HPAI remains a significant disruptor, impacting production across broilers, eggs, and turkeys. Despite these hurdles, export demand, stable pricing, and the industry’s resilience provide a strong foundation for recovery in the year ahead.
