The global poultry market saw a robust start to 2025, supported by strong fundamentals such as stable feed costs and high beef and egg prices. However, the outlook for the second half of the year has grown increasingly uncertain as a wave of challenges threatens to disrupt production and trade. These insights come from Rabobank’s latest Quarterly Global Poultry Outlook, which offers a comprehensive analysis of market trends and risks shaping the sector.
Several key developments have heightened market volatility in recent months. The announcement—followed by the postponement—of significant U.S. import tariffs has cast a shadow over global trade. At the same time, outbreaks of avian influenza across major poultry-producing regions—including the United States, European Union, and Brazil—are tightening supply and disrupting export flows. Now, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran adds a new layer of geopolitical risk, particularly concerning given the region’s importance to global poultry markets.
These disruptions are already having ripple effects. The International Monetary Fund recently downgraded its global GDP growth forecast by 0.5%, citing mounting geopolitical instability. Oil prices have climbed in response to the Middle East conflict, further adding to the economic strain. While poultry demand remains resilient overall, Rabobank has revised its global production growth forecast for 2025 downward from an expected 2.5%–3% to a more cautious 2%–2.5%. If tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, further reductions are likely.
Trade remains a critical factor shaping the market. The postponed U.S. tariffs still loom large, and the possibility of a broader trade war is not off the table. If new agreements are reached, U.S. producers may gain new market access at the expense of competitors. But should trade tensions worsen, U.S. poultry exports could face severe restrictions, creating opportunities for other major suppliers such as Brazil, Thailand, Russia, and the EU. In a worst-case scenario, high tariffs could spark price inflation, especially in vulnerable regions across Asia and Africa, while distorting global poultry flows.
Despite the strong start to the year, the poultry trade has already begun to feel the strain. Global volumes hit record highs in Q1, but bird flu outbreaks and trade uncertainty are now reshaping market dynamics. Brazil, one of the world’s leading poultry exporters, has seen 40% of its exports blocked by key trading partners following its avian influenza outbreak. Trade in hatching eggs has also been significantly impacted, with supplies tightening in the wake of outbreaks in Brazil, the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand. This presents an acute challenge for countries in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that rely heavily on imported hatching eggs to sustain domestic production.
As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the global poultry sector faces a complex mix of strong demand and mounting risks. Regional divergences are likely to widen as the effects of trade policy, geopolitical conflict, and disease outbreaks continue to shape market outcomes. While overall growth remains positive, the path ahead—according to Rabobank—will require caution, adaptability, and close attention to fast-evolving global conditions.
Source: Rabobank
