According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s semi-annual report, China is anticipated to experience a slight decrease in both chicken meat production and consumption in 2024 compared to figures from the previous year. This projection is attributed to several factors outlined in the report.
One significant factor influencing this decline is the imposition of import constraints on avian genetics due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) import restrictions. These restrictions have disrupted the supply chain and hindered the import of crucial genetic stock, impacting production levels.
Additionally, the continued closures of live poultry markets have contributed to the decrease in both production and consumption. These closures have disrupted traditional distribution channels, affecting consumer access to poultry products.
The forecast indicates that both white broiler and yellow broiler production will be affected by these challenges. White broiler production is facing price pressures from the previous year, compounded by import bans related to HPAI. Similarly, yellow broiler production is hindered by the ongoing closures of live poultry markets.
Regarding trade volumes, imports and exports are expected to remain stagnant compared to official 2023 data. The report revises the forecast for chicken meat imports in 2024 to 770,000 metric tons, taking into account market and economic conditions. Despite some recovery in poultry genetics imports, industry sources suggest that the inventory of grandparent stock remains lower than in previous years, further impacting production.
In summary, the forecast suggests a constrained outlook for chicken production and consumption in China for 2024, with various factors contributing to the modest decline in the industry. These challenges underscore the importance of addressing import constraints and market disruptions to support the stability and growth of the poultry sector in the region.
