As the U.S. poultry industry enters 2025, broiler production continues to show resilience despite several challenges. In December 2024, broiler production reached 3.878 billion pounds, marking a 6.2 percent increase from November 2024 and a 7.3 percent rise compared to the same month the previous year. This surge was driven by one additional slaughter day in December. However, live weights remained stable, averaging 6.6 pounds—consistent with both the previous month and December 2023. Early data suggests that live weights have remained stable through January and into early February 2025.
Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast for first-quarter broiler production has been slightly reduced to 11.675 billion pounds, down from the previous estimate of 11.7 billion pounds. This adjustment comes as a result of losses attributed to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in January and early February, which affected over 23 million birds nationwide. Of these, approximately 2.2 million birds were part of the broiler production chain, including those used for meat and breeding purposes. This represents a notable increase from December 2024 when 18 million birds were lost, including 211,000 broiler breeding birds.
Despite these setbacks, the total projected production for 2025 remains strong, with the annual estimate set at 47.625 billion pounds—slightly up from 2024’s final production of 46.988 billion pounds. A modest increase in the second half of 2025, amounting to 25 million pounds, helps offset early losses and stabilizes the overall outlook.
In addition to production challenges, cold storage data for broiler meat also reflects shifts in market conditions. By the end of December 2024, total broiler meat in cold storage stood at 762.9 million pounds, down 8.6 percent from the previous year. The quantity of breast meat stored has grown, now accounting for 30.3 percent of total cold storage holdings. The USDA has revised ending stocks for 2025, now expecting 760 million pounds in cold storage, a slight decline of 30 million pounds from prior projections. This reduction is linked to strong consumption trends and higher prices for competing animal proteins.
Overall, while 2025 starts with some adjustments due to HPAI-related losses and shifts in cold storage inventories, the broiler production industry is poised for continued growth. The forecast suggests that, despite challenges, U.S. production will maintain its upward trajectory, adapting to market dynamics and health-related disruptions.
Source: USDA
