President Trump has signalled that he may raise U.S. import tariffs on goods from Canada by 10 percentage points above current levels, citing as justification a recent anti-tariff advertisement produced by Ontario. If implemented, this move would escalate bilateral trade tensions and could have significant knock-on effects for Canada’s agri-food sector, including its poultry industry.
Canada’s poultry sector operates under a supply-management framework, which tightly controls production of broiler chickens, turkey and eggs, and sets tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) that allow limited duty-free import volumes, but impose very high tariffs beyond those quotas. news.isotek.nl+2FAS+2 The arrangement gives Canadian producers a stable domestic market, but it also means that imported poultry is constrained and more expensive. The U.S. is the dominant supplier of poultry imports into Canada, accounting for over 80 % of Canadian chicken meat imports under TRQ access. FAS+1
If the U.S. raises tariffs by 10 % on Canadian goods, several pathways of impact emerge for Canada’s poultry industry:
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Export disruption: While Canada exports less poultry to the U.S. compared with Canada’s imports from the U.S., any tariff hike could reduce U.S. demand for Canadian-origin poultry products. Canadian exporters may face weakened access to the U.S. market, lower margins or lost market share as U.S. buyers substitute from other sources.
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Import cost & competitive shift: Higher U.S. tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods could result in Canadian retaliatory measures (or pre-emptive hedging), raising the cost of inputs or export feedstock for poultry processors. Canada has already implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products — which include poultry and eggs — in response to U.S. tariffs. The Poultry Site+1
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Domestic pricing pressures: If export channels shrink and import dynamics shift, Canadian poultry processors and producers might face tighter cost structures. That could lead to higher domestic prices for poultry or eggs, or suppressed profitability for producers.
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Supply chain uncertainty and investment inertia: The threat of tariffs alone increases uncertainty. Poultry operations rely on stable input costs (feed, chicks, imported equipment) and predictable markets. A trade shock could prompt some producers to defer expansion or investment, or increase their risk premiums.
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Resilience of the supply-managed system: On the flip side, Canada’s supply-management regime may provide a buffer. Because domestic production is protected and costs are contained via quotas, Canadian poultry farmers might be somewhat sheltered from the full brunt of U.S. trade retaliation. Indeed, one major Canadian poultry/food-processing company, Maple Leaf Foods, has said that tariffs are not “an existential threat” to their business, though they could impact a small portion of their exports. MEAT+POULTRY
In short: while Canada’s poultry sector is not likely to collapse under a 10 % tariff increase by the U.S., the trade shock could raise costs, reduce margins, and create ripple effects throughout the supply chain. Producers and processors should monitor escalation, review alternative export markets, and test scenarios for cost-shock resilience.
Given this backdrop, policymakers in Canada may respond by reinforcing protections for the poultry sector — for example by keeping import quotas tight, supporting domestic processing, or seeking new export agreements outside the U.S. market.
